Empire Gym · Bottleneck Assessment 092226
The Result: Is It Worth Solving?
A decision map. Four questions, answered with their own numbers.
Annualized bleed
$38.8k/yr
66 members × $48.99 × 12 mo
Conservative return
$7,642/yr
saving 1 in 5 of the 66
Per member saved
$588/yr
recurring, every year
Gap to goal
+626
874 → 1,500 members
Question 1
How big is the leak, really?
(940 peak − 874 today) × $48.99 × 12 mo = $38,800 / year
Sixty-six members slid away after an underpriced summer program. Nobody was contacted on the way out — the systems that could have saved them never spoke to each other.
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Question 2
What does the fix cost vs. what does it return?
Cost of the fix
- One GoHighLevel workflow build (one time)
- ~30 minutes every Monday: export, compute the 14-day list, import
- SMS/email send costs — pennies per message
- No new software. No API to buy. Both systems already paid for.
Return, conservatively
- Save just 1 in 5 of the 66 → $7,642/yr
- Every member saved = $588/year, recurring
- Saving 2 members covers any reasonable build cost
- Each saved member also refers, reviews, and stays past month 12
Worth it
The cheapest fix on the board returns the most per dollar. Near-zero cost, four-figure annual upside.
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Question 3
Should they just run ads instead?
No — now
- Lifetime value today: $600 (12.2 mo × $48.99)
- Break-even acquisition ceiling: ~$60
- Real ad cost: $80–100/member + agency fees
- Ads at this LTV lose money or tread water
Yes — after
- Stretch lifetime 12 → 36 months, nudge pricing (CrossFit affiliation gives cover)
- Lifetime value: $1,800–2,000
- $100–150 acquisition becomes profitable
- Then run ads as always-on brand builders, conversion tracking feeding Meta
Retention first unlocks advertising. The order matters more than the tactics.
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Question 4
Does this reach the 1,500-member goal?
874 → 1,500 needs +626 members. At $48.99, 1,500 members ≈ $882k/yr in dues — the "step back from the business" number.
- Shut the back door (two-week save) → stops the 66/yr bleed from compounding
- Open the front door wider (no-sweat-intro on every page, fixed forms, USPA authority, feeder pages) → assessments in the door
- Later: profitable ads pour fuel on a bucket that no longer leaks
No single fix delivers 626 members. But without the retention fix, every new member is poured into a leaking bucket — acquisition can never win that race.
Honest caveats
- The 66-member slide includes people who moved away or left for good reasons — not all 66 were saveable.
- Each recovered member is valued at 12 months of dues, slightly below the stated 12.2-month average — deliberately conservative.
- The weekly export needs a human every Monday. If nobody owns it, the save doesn't happen. (A 30-minute habit, not a project.)
- SMS outreach requires proper opt-in consent; GoHighLevel's 10DLC registration must be in place.
- Mary's "300 five-star reviews" claim is unverified (site shows 39) — don't build projections on it.
Assessment verdict
PRESCRIBE
The bleed is material (~$38.8k/yr on stated numbers), the fix is the cheapest thing on the board, the owners are engaged this week, and every later move — pricing power, ads, the 1,500-member goal — gets easier once the back door is shut. Fix the leak first.